We are actively engaged in Habitat mapping and research on the West Coast of the U.S. We are exploring using Bayes nets as the underlying engine for Coastal and Marine Saptial Planning in a new software system called Bayesian Analysis for Spatial Siting (Bass).

 

 

 

   

Whats New

Upcoming Talks and Other Things

National Academy of Science, Engineering and Medicine

Joint BESR/COSG Meeting - The Cascadia Subduction Zone: Science, Impacts, and Response

November 10-11, 2016, National Academy of Sciences Building
2101 Constitution Ave NW Washington DC 20418

 

City Club Earthquake Forum, Kells Pub Portland, November 1, 5:30 pm

 

Goldfinger Active Tectonics Lab wins 2016 Geological Society of America Kirk Bryan Award.

 

TEdx Mt. HoodTEDx Portland, June 18, 2016. Revolution Hall

 

 

Science Pub Corvallis "Shaking up the Northwest, the Cascadia Earthquake in our Future" Majestic Theatre, Covallis 6 pm. Science Pub at The Majestic @ The Majestic Theatre | Corvallis | Oregon | United States

 

New Yorker Festival, Manhattan, October 3, School of Visual Arts, Theatre 1, 10 am. App_icon

NWEA Workshop, Hood River Inn, October 2.

Oregon Coast Economic Summit, August 27, Grand Ronde.

The Really Big One: A Public Forum On Earthquake Hazards

and Preparedness in the PNW, University of Oregon, Eugene, August 6, 7 PM. 156 Straub Hall.

New Books

New Novel: Stick Slip from Chris Scholz! An entertaining read about a Cascadia great earthquake.

The Next Tsunami examines our short term memory about disasters, Los Angeles Times, March 21, 2014

New Papers

Second Paper detailing the marine paleoseismic record of the Northern Sumatra margin released.

Second New Canadian Study Corroborates and Extends Cascadia Marine Paleoseismic Record

New Thesis Released: Southern Cascadia Turbidites Traced with High-Resolution CHIRP Sub Bottom Profiles.

New Dissertation Released: Sumatra Paleoseismology

New Paper Released: Cascadia Segmented Rupture Tsunami Models

New Paper Released: Cascadia Tsunami Models

New Paper Released: Cascadia Great Earthquake Clustering

Coastwide Tsunami inundation Scenarios for Oregon Released

"Superquakes and Supercycles" released, Seismological Research Letters

New Paper Released: Cascadia Turbidites in Forearc Lakes?

Preliminary study of existing lake sedimentary records suggests a record of great earthquakes.

New Cascadia Paper Released: Segmented Ruptures Along the Southern Cascadia Margin

New core and high resolution reflection data illuminate thesouthern Cascadia paleoseismic record.

New Canadian Study Corroborates Cascadia Marine Paleoseismic Record

Seismically generated turbidites in Effingham Inlet, western Vancouver Island.

Second in Sumatra Paleoseismology Series Released

Other Stuff

Bayesian Spatial Analysis Team Wins Department of the Interior Partners in Conservation Award

Oregon Earthquake Resiliency Report Released

Oregon Tsunami Work Wins Award

Successful geophysical cruise aboard the Derek. M. Baylis completed with very low carbon footprint

Cascadia, the Movie! Animation of 10,000 year earthquake record from marine and coastal paleoseismic sites.

Initiative to Retrofit Schools in Portand for Earthquakes

   

 

 

Bayesian Analysis for Spatial Siting (BASS)

 

 

Partners: Oregon State University, Parametrix, Robust Decisions, Inc. Aquatera, Ltd., The Nature Conservancy

BASS is a new system under development at OSU, Parametrixand Robust Decisions, Inc. The system is designed to advance the state of the art in Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning and provide a decision support tool that can be applied to siting of renewable energy devices, but also more broadly applied to spatial siting issues. Siting issues in the context of CMSP require decision support systems (DSSs) that address stakeholder-inclusive, spatial multi-objective decision-making under uncertainty. Such systems must identify and quantify spatially explicit tradeoffs among objectives and highlight opportunities for reaching common ground among agencies, developers, BASS Bayesian marine spatial planning for renewable energyand stakeholders. Inclusive and interactive, these DSS's capture, share, and compare different ideas about ocean renewable energy siting options. They help people understand the real-world implications of ocean renewable energy development and reveal ecological, economic, and social tradeoffs among possible ocean management scenarios. Often, methods and approaches labeled as decision support systems are instead simply spatial information representation and display tools which do not support the decision-making process, exclude stakeholders, or fail to address uncertainty. Some more advanced systems have the ability, through geographic information system (GIS) techniques like polygon intersection, to “model” decisions by assigning values to the polygons and multiplying them together where they overlap. However, such systems have limited stakeholder input, are unable to cope with uncertainty, and offer limited or no decision-making support. In addition, all of these systems lack a defensible method of combining data, do not handle non-spatial data, and are incapable of accounting for absent or spotty data, making them poorly equipped for the purpose of ocean renewable energy siting and other applicaitons in the context of CMSP.

 

 

 

Why Bayesian methods in marine spatial planning?

 

 

 

Parametrix, Oregon State University (OSU), and the other team partners, supported by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), are engaged in the development of a Bayesian integration spatial multi-criteria decision analysis system for federal, state, and regional siting programs to evaluate ocean renewable energy project proposals in the context of CMSP. The outcome will be a robust, quantifiable analysis system that can accommodate an unlimited number of inputs, and integrate disparate data bio-geophysical, social, and infrastructure information and associated uncertainties in an explicit way. The BASS system is designed for application in a science-based regulatory environment that requires the use of best available scientific, economic, and social information and will produce outputs that are quantified and defensible, as well as being integrated with difficult to quanifiy elements such as stakeholder engagement.

 

 

 

Please contact us to discuss the use of BASS for specific Marine Spatial Planning Applications.

 

 

Publications

BASS Brief White Paper

 

Ullmann, D., Halsey, K., Goldfinger, C., 2013, Managing Eco-System Services Decisions, BASS system white paper, 11 p.

BASS Demo video 2013

 

Student Involvment

 

Erhardt, M.W., 2013, A Bayesian Approach to Marine Spatial Planning, [M.S. thesis], Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, 338 pp.Erhard thesis


Lockett, D., 2012, A Bayesian approach to habitat suitability prediction, [M.S. thesis]: Corvallis, Oregon, Oregon State University. 85 pp.

Student Daniel Lockett's blog and web archive of work on Baysian elements of BASS.