BASS is a new system under development at OSU, Parametrixand Robust Decisions, Inc. The system is designed to advance the state of the art in Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning and provide a decision support tool that can be applied to siting of renewable energy devices, but also more broadly applied to spatial siting issues. Siting issues in the context of CMSP require decision support systems (DSSs) that address stakeholder-inclusive, spatial multi-objective decision-making under uncertainty. Such systems must identify and quantify spatially explicit tradeoffs among objectives and highlight opportunities for reaching common ground among agencies, developers, and stakeholders. Inclusive and interactive, these DSS's capture, share, and compare different ideas about ocean renewable energy siting options. They help people understand the real-world implications of ocean renewable energy development and reveal ecological, economic, and social tradeoffs among possible ocean management scenarios. Often, methods and approaches labeled as decision support systems are instead simply spatial information representation and display tools which do not support the decision-making process, exclude stakeholders, or fail to address uncertainty. Some more advanced systems have the ability, through geographic information system (GIS) techniques like polygon intersection, to “model” decisions by assigning values to the polygons and multiplying them together where they overlap. However, such systems have limited stakeholder input, are unable to cope with uncertainty, and offer limited or no decision-making support. In addition, all of these systems lack a defensible method of combining data, do not handle non-spatial data, and are incapable of accounting for absent or spotty data, making them poorly equipped for the purpose of ocean renewable energy siting and other applicaitons in the context of CMSP.
Parametrix, Oregon State University (OSU), and the other team partners, supported by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), are engaged in the development of a Bayesian integration spatial multi-criteria decision analysis system for federal, state, and regional siting programs to evaluate ocean renewable energy project proposals in the context of CMSP. The outcome will be a robust, quantifiable analysis system that can accommodate an unlimited number of inputs, and integrate disparate data bio-geophysical, social, and infrastructure information and associated uncertainties in an explicit way. The BASS system is designed for application in a science-based regulatory environment that requires the use of best available scientific, economic, and social information and will produce outputs that are quantified and defensible, as well as being integrated with difficult to quanifiy elements such as stakeholder engagement.
Ullmann, D., Halsey, K., Goldfinger, C., 2013, Managing Eco-System Services Decisions, BASS system white paper, 11 p.
Erhardt, M.W., 2013, A Bayesian Approach to Marine Spatial Planning, [M.S. thesis], Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, 338 pp.
Lockett, D., 2012, A Bayesian approach to habitat suitability prediction, [M.S. thesis]: Corvallis, Oregon, Oregon State University. 85 pp.
Student Daniel Lockett's blog and web archive of work on Baysian elements of BASS.